bmrlabs · normalized
How big is the security state, really?
Nominal-dollar charts confuse inflation, population growth, and policy expansion. Two overlays strip those out: spending per capita (each American's share of the bill) and spending as a percentage of nominal GDP (the security state's claim on national output).
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What per-capita reveals. Defense per capita rose from $2,159 in FY12 to
$2,971 in FY26 — a 38% real increase even before the OBBBA reconciliation surge. Federal LE
per capita climbed from $134 to $294, more than doubling. Population grew ~8% over the
window; everything beyond that is policy.
Spending per capita — Defense vs Federal LE
Defense ($/person, blue, left axis) and Federal LE ($/person, orange, right axis). Population: Census midyear estimates.
What % of GDP reveals. Defense as a share of nominal GDP fell from 4.17%
in FY12 to roughly 2.94% in FY24 as the economy outgrew the budget — then jumped back
toward 3.18% in FY26 with OBBBA. Federal LE share has hovered around 0.20–0.31% the entire
window, a tiny absolute claim on output even as headline dollars tripled.
Spending as % of nominal GDP — Defense vs Federal LE
Defense % GDP (blue, left axis) and Federal LE % GDP (orange, right axis). GDP: BEA NIPA Table 1.1.5; FY25–26 from CBO Jan 2026 baseline.
Spending per capita (FY12–FY26)
| FY | Defense $/person | LE $/person | US population |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY12 | $2,159.2 | $133.8 | 314.0 M |
| FY13 | $2,001.3 | $132.8 | 316.3 M |
| FY14 | $1,908.3 | $135 | 318.6 M |
| FY15 | $1,827.3 | $140.3 | 320.7 M |
| FY16 | $1,904.6 | $142.5 | 322.9 M |
| FY17 | $1,951.4 | $147.7 | 324.9 M |
| FY18 | $2,142.6 | $150 | 326.7 M |
| FY19 | $2,180.9 | $155.3 | 328.3 M |
| FY20 | $2,287 | $160.1 | 331.0 M |
| FY21 | $2,232.6 | $156.7 | 331.9 M |
| FY22 | $2,334.2 | $165 | 333.3 M |
| FY23 | $2,562 | $176.2 | 334.9 M |
| FY24 | $2,632.2 | $181.2 | 336.6 M |
| FY25 | $2,636.7 | $266 | 338.3 M |
| FY26 | $2,970.6 | $294.1 | 340.0 M |
Spending share of GDP (FY12–FY26)
| FY | Defense % GDP | LE % GDP | Nominal GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY12 | 4.17% | 0.258% | $16.25 T |
| FY13 | 3.76% | 0.249% | $16.84 T |
| FY14 | 3.46% | 0.245% | $17.55 T |
| FY15 | 3.22% | 0.247% | $18.21 T |
| FY16 | 3.29% | 0.246% | $18.69 T |
| FY17 | 3.25% | 0.246% | $19.48 T |
| FY18 | 3.41% | 0.239% | $20.53 T |
| FY19 | 3.35% | 0.239% | $21.38 T |
| FY20 | 3.59% | 0.252% | $21.06 T |
| FY21 | 3.14% | 0.220% | $23.59 T |
| FY22 | 2.99% | 0.211% | $26.01 T |
| FY23 | 3.14% | 0.216% | $27.36 T |
| FY24 | 3.07% | 0.211% | $28.85 T |
| FY25 | 2.94% | 0.297% | $30.30 T |
| FY26 | 3.18% | 0.314% | $31.80 T |