bmrlabs · outcomes
Are we getting outcomes proportional to spend?
A trillion-dollar defense budget and a hundred-billion-dollar federal LE budget should produce visible results. Two overlays: violent and property crime rates per 100k (crime-control narrative), and the federal LE output volumes those budgets were sold against — ICE removals, CBP southwest encounters, and federal criminal prosecutions.
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Caveat — federal LE ≠ local crime. ~88% of US law enforcement is municipal
or state. Federal LE spending changes don't move the violent-crime rate directly; the chart
below tests the political claim that more federal spend → safer streets, not a causal
mechanism. Read the dual lines as two independent context series, not as cause and effect.
NIBRS transition (FY21–FY22). The FBI retired the Summary Reporting System
and switched to NIBRS at the start of CY2021. National reporting coverage temporarily fell
to ~63% before rebuilding to ~83% by CY2023. Treat the two shaded years as a methodology
break, not a real-world spike.
Crime rates per 100,000 — calendar year aligned to FY
Violent (red, left axis) vs property (purple, right axis). Sources: FBI UCR/NIBRS Crime in the Nation.
What the LE-output overlay shows. ICE removals peaked at FY12 (~410k),
fell to a Title 42-era trough of ~59k in FY21, and rebounded to ~271k by FY24. CBP
encounters tell the inverse story — flat through FY18, then a 4.4× surge through FY23 — as
policy mix and economic conditions shifted, not because LE budgets moved in lockstep.
Federal prosecutions peaked at ~100k in FY19 and have not recovered to that level.
Federal LE output volumes — indexed (window-start = 100)
Each series rebased so the first year in your selected window equals 100. ICE removals (red), CBP encounters (orange), federal prosecutions (green dashed).
Crime rates per 100,000 (FY12–FY26)
| FY | Violent | Property |
|---|---|---|
| FY12 | 387.8 | 2,758 |
| FY13 | 369.1 | 2,626 |
| FY14 | 361.6 | 2,464 |
| FY15 | 373.7 | 2,500 |
| FY16 | 386.3 | 2,451 |
| FY17 | 382.9 | 2,362 |
| FY18 | 380.6 | 2,200 |
| FY19 | 379.4 | 2,109 |
| FY20 | 398.5 | 1,958 |
| FY21 | 395.7 | 1,933 |
| FY22 | 380.7 | 1,955 |
| FY23 | 363.8 | 1,916 |
| FY24 | 338 | 1,860 |
| FY25 | — | — |
| FY26 | — | — |
Federal LE output volumes (FY12–FY26)
| FY | ICE removals | CBP SW encounters | Fed prosecutions |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY12 | 409,849 | 364,768 | 91,938 |
| FY13 | 368,644 | 420,789 | 79,710 |
| FY14 | 315,943 | 569,237 | 76,165 |
| FY15 | 235,413 | 410,447 | 67,898 |
| FY16 | 240,255 | 553,378 | 73,977 |
| FY17 | 226,119 | 415,517 | 70,091 |
| FY18 | 256,085 | 521,090 | 89,431 |
| FY19 | 267,258 | 977,509 | 100,021 |
| FY20 | 185,884 | 458,088 | 65,089 |
| FY21 | 59,011 | 1,734,686 | 49,571 |
| FY22 | 72,177 | 2,378,944 | 53,547 |
| FY23 | 142,580 | 2,475,669 | 64,316 |
| FY24 | 271,484 | 2,135,005 | 66,800 |
| FY25 | — | — | — |
| FY26 | — | — | — |